Tapsearch Com EditorLibertarians: Always looking at the bright side
May 2nd 2007 02:10
From Reason's blog:
We sure ought to be happy -- we're reproducing at almost the replacement rate! Admittedly, that's more than the Europeans are doing.
But once you break those numbers down, it seems illegitimacy might explain some of it. Take race statistics, just because they're easy to find. It turns out that Hispanics (rate of about 96 babies* per 1,000 women per year) and blacks (around 69), the two races/ethnicities with the highest illegitimacy rates, are having the most kids. Whites, the largest population group with a lower illegitimacy rate, have about 58 babies per 1,000 women per year.
Nothing to worry about here! Through (A) "popping 'em out" without marrying and (B) importing people who do the same, we'll get those Europeans in the population war!
Though in fairness I should quote this:
Of course, to say this he has to concede that the Hispanic rate "touches three" and the black rate is a diminishing but still significant 9 percent higher than the white one. He doesn't use the word "illegitimacy" at all, though it's true that illegitimacy is quite high in Europe as well -- it might partly explain why Americans have so many babies, but it can't explain the difference between the two regions.
By Robert VerBruggen
*If you follow the link, you'll notice I used the NCHS as opposed to the ACS numbers. They're not much different, and my thesis holds up either way, but NCHS has the advantage of treating Hispanics of any race apart from non-Hispanic whites. ("Hispanic" can refer to those descended from Native Americans, Spanish conquerors or black slaves, so it'd not a racial term. One can be both white and Hispanic.)
Americans keeping having babies. Will Wilkinson does an excellent survey of why American women just can't stop popping 'em out.
We sure ought to be happy -- we're reproducing at almost the replacement rate! Admittedly, that's more than the Europeans are doing.
But once you break those numbers down, it seems illegitimacy might explain some of it. Take race statistics, just because they're easy to find. It turns out that Hispanics (rate of about 96 babies* per 1,000 women per year) and blacks (around 69), the two races/ethnicities with the highest illegitimacy rates, are having the most kids. Whites, the largest population group with a lower illegitimacy rate, have about 58 babies per 1,000 women per year.
Nothing to worry about here! Through (A) "popping 'em out" without marrying and (B) importing people who do the same, we'll get those Europeans in the population war!
Though in fairness I should quote this:
The single most important factor in explaining America's high fertility level these days is the birth rate of the country's Anglo majority, who still account for roughly 55 percent of U.S. births. Over the past decade and a half, the TFR for non-Hispanic white Americans averaged 1.82 births per woman per lifetime--subreplacement, but more than 20 percent higher than corresponding national levels for western Europe, and much higher if one compares "Anglo" TFRs with those of western Europe's native born populations.
Of course, to say this he has to concede that the Hispanic rate "touches three" and the black rate is a diminishing but still significant 9 percent higher than the white one. He doesn't use the word "illegitimacy" at all, though it's true that illegitimacy is quite high in Europe as well -- it might partly explain why Americans have so many babies, but it can't explain the difference between the two regions.
By Robert VerBruggen
*If you follow the link, you'll notice I used the NCHS as opposed to the ACS numbers. They're not much different, and my thesis holds up either way, but NCHS has the advantage of treating Hispanics of any race apart from non-Hispanic whites. ("Hispanic" can refer to those descended from Native Americans, Spanish conquerors or black slaves, so it'd not a racial term. One can be both white and Hispanic.)
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